World Bank forecasts a 23% jump in commodity prices in 2026 as the Middle East war and other shocks bite

• Energy, food and metals prices are all forecast to rise
• Energy could climb further if the war escalates
• A record El Niño could trigger a new food crisis
• The World Bank publishes commodity outlooks twice a year

Global commodity prices are on course to jump 23% in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday, pointing to higher energy prices and shipping disruption during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and strong demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank said oil, natural gas, food and metals prices had all risen sharply this year as global shocks piled up. It warned that things could get worse if the conflict in the Middle East escalated further and damage to Russian oil infrastructure continued.

What happens next year

The bank expects prices to ease by 7% next year. But it said further shocks, including forecasts of the worst El Niño weather effect since 1950, could keep food prices high, raising the prospect of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.

The world economy is currently more exposed to supply shocks, the bank said. Global oil stocks have been drawn down during the war in the Middle East, and global oil supply is forecast to fall by 5.2% in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades outside the global recession of 2020.

Several shocks at once

"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist. "Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth."